Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 22.371034 24.520330 26.927408 29.853704 33.358501 37.479917 42.785305
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 19.160445 21.921614 25.260402 29.702333 35.638720 43.603465 55.721269
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.101203 20.191204 24.150614 29.814649 38.140069 50.809194 73.928110
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.481095 18.705034 23.019694 29.555124 39.960731 57.733218 96.993073
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.222911 17.495325 22.027967 29.223775 41.502913 64.877906 128.408321
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.239931 16.527174 21.212493 28.957330 43.025374 72.786190 175.267898
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.451706 15.738594 20.540249 28.766526 44.597563 81.800154 252.052813
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.673878 14.887121 19.665023 28.068803 44.969460 88.241397 351.651503
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.412518 14.763454 19.891773 29.317088 49.784498 111.478405 944.469419
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.886560 14.194501 19.338962 29.034366 51.075369 125.034362 2849.345252
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.489820 13.791189 19.013692 29.127257 53.329350 145.880205 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.162995 13.470789 18.792483 29.384751 56.132599 175.149378 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.839287 13.138847 18.530172 29.540171 58.834522 212.556117 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.469043 12.709992 18.063407 29.197943 59.985486 244.950327 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.182215 12.398737 17.779239 29.213926 62.342418 301.643566 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.876745 12.039665 17.380741 28.919033 63.591398 358.569734 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.589509 11.695638 16.984713 28.578735 64.601751 427.436969 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.333249 11.390274 16.638686 28.312208 65.839857 526.064847 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.104950 11.120626 16.340820 28.123782 67.366260 678.700673 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.834106 10.767793 15.865254 27.449722 66.678488 761.883188 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.796059 10.806099 16.132773 28.650179 74.792848 2202.385939 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.597402 10.560472 15.836443 28.377634 76.029745 4105.172968 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.448579 10.394392 15.685084 28.466749 79.216076 36095.012922 NaN